Breaking down playoff scenarios at the Virtual World Cup
I've never really been a big NFL fan. It's not the right sport for me - too violent, too macho. But if I had to pinpoint one thing about it that I absolutely love, it would be the playoff scenarios. Every December, the NFL season comes down to a last-minute rush among the contending teams to secure playoff spots, and every sports publication in America publishes these detailed explainers on what has to happen for each team to get in. You end up getting to read ridiculous sentences like, "Pittsburgh gets a playoff berth with a win and a Tennessee loss, or a tie and a Tennessee loss, or a Tennessee loss and an Indianapolis win and Oakland loss or tie, or a Tennessee loss and an Indianapolis win if Pittsburgh ties Oakland in the strength-of-victory tiebreaker.” (I'm not making that up - that's an actual scenario from the final week of 2019.)
How can you not love it? You get to take 17 weeks of games and reduce them all to one crazy, convoluted, completely absurd logic puzzle. As a logic puzzle enthusiast, I'm always drawn to these playoff scenarios, even if I don't even care to watch the actual games.
Anyway, we're 2 weeks into the Virtual World Cup, and we're now in a situation quite analogous to the NFL in December. There's only 1 match left to play in the pool play stage of this tournament, but just about everything is still up in the air. Almost no teams are eliminated from playoff contention; almost no teams are guaranteed a spot, either. Here's a rundown of what went down this week, where the teams stand now, and what needs to happen for each team to qualify for the knockout rounds.
Group A
What's happened so far: We had a dramatic weekend. Going into Saturday's games, the top-seeded UK and Malaysia teams were 0-1, having lost in the opener to Thailand and India respectively. Both top teams needed to rally back to improve their chances of making the bracket. Malaysia took care of business, notching a 14-11 victory over Thailand on Saturday - but on Sunday, it was tougher going for the UK team against India. After India stormed out to a 12-8 lead through four rounds, it appeared to be all over... but the Brits came all the way back! With a 5-0 run in the final round, the UK ended up with a miraculous victory in the end, 13-12. This means that all four teams in Group A are now tied - 1 win, 1 loss.
What happens next: There are no complicated playoff scenarios here. The process is as simple as can be: Win and in. The UK plays Malaysia in the final weekend, and India faces Thailand. The two teams that win will advance to the elimination rounds, and the two teams that lose will go home.
(Figuratively speaking, anyway. Literally, I'd imagine they already are home.)
Group B
What's happened so far: The lead story here is that Pakistan has been dominant. Based on their players' average WESPA rating, the Pakistanis came in as the No. 3 seed in their group, but they've proven over the last two weeks they can punch above their weight. In the first round, Pakistan toppled No. 2 Nigeria; this weekend, they took down No. 1 Australia as well, a 16-9 win powered by a 5-0 performance from Syed Imaad Ali. Meanwhile, both the Aussies and the Nigerians notched wins over South Africa, so they're both 1-1.
What happens next: Pakistan will play South Africa this weekend, but even if they lose, the Pakistanis are still guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. They will be either 3-0 or 2-1 at the end of pool play, and either way, they're in the top two. The other team to make the knockouts will be the head-to-head winner between Australia and Nigeria - an absolutely crucial showdown between two of the world's best Scrabbling nations. Only one can advance!
Group C
What's happened so far: Singapore may have suffered an upset loss in the first week, but they came absolutely steamrolling back in the second. The Singaporeans beat Ghana 21-4 to get back into contention - Jeremy Khoo won all five of his games against the Ghanaians, and the other four guys each went 4-1. Singapore now has 33 game wins, tied for most in the tournament - but they're still not in first place in Group C! That would be Canada, who beat Kenya 18-7 on Saturday to move to 2-0, led by alternate player Matthew Tunnicliffe dominating with a 5-0 run.
What happens next: Canada and Singapore are the top two right now, and they play each other. Kenya (1-1) and Ghana (0-2) do battle in the other game. Here's a breakdown of all the permutations...
If Canada and Kenya win: This one's easy. Canada is 3-0 and Kenya is 2-1, so they're in.
If Singapore and Ghana win: Also straightforward. Singapore and Canada would be tied for first at 2-1, so they would advance.
If Canada and Ghana win: This is where it gets messy. Canada would obviously make it, at 3-0, but all three other teams would be tied for second place with equivalent 1-2 records. The tiebreaker here is game wins, which means Singapore currently has an advantage, but that can change.
If Singapore and Kenya win: This is the other messy one. Instead of three teams at 1-2, here we'd have three at 2-1, with Singapore/Canada/Kenya all tied. Again, game wins make the difference; whichever team won the fewest of its 75 total games would be eliminated.
Group D
What's happened so far: This group started out looking fairly boring, with the higher-seeded team winning every match - Ireland beat New Zealand and the United States topped the Philippines last week, and the U.S. took care of business again against the Kiwis in week 2. But we finally got an upset on Sunday, as the Philippines took down Ireland, 15-10! This means we may still have a little bit of drama in the final weekend.
What happens next: This group is similar to Group C, with the two top teams facing each other and the two bottom teams potentially still in the hunt. Let's run through it...
If the U.S. and the Philippines win: No complicated math here. The U.S. is 3-0 and the Philippines are 2-1, so they move on.
If Ireland and New Zealand win: Also easy to calculate. The U.S. and Ireland are 2-1, so they're in.
If the U.S. and New Zealand win: Here's where the drama ensues. We'd have the Americans at 3-0 and everyone else at 1-2, so the team with the most game wins of the 1-2 squads would advance.
If Ireland and the Philippines win: More drama! Both teams would be 2-1, and so would the U.S. The top two teams based on tiebreakers would go on.
Phew. That's a lot of unfilled playoff spots, and a lot of different ways the final weekend can turn out. I must say: I was a little apprehensive about this tournament format when we first began the event, but I'm now absolutely thrilled at how it's turning out. Almost everyone has something to play for in this final weekend, which means we're headed for an exciting finish come Saturday and Sunday.
Stay tuned for the final schedule, complete with time slots and Twitch broadcasters! You should see it in less than 24 hours. To all the players competing in the final weekend, good luck; to those on the sidelines, I hope you'll join us on Twitch for what's sure to be a thrilling third weekend of Scrabble action. Until then!